Bitcoin (BTC) didn’t make it over the $6,800 threshold this weekend. But there are signs it’s on its way back above the $7,000 mark. At the very least, $6,000 is looking more and more like the lowest the cryptocurrency can fall after a record-setting plummet earlier this month. So, what’s giving investors the confidence that Bitcoin’s price is on the rise again? There are a few encouraging trends. But by far the most significant is the number of short-term bearish positions: they’re declining. In other words, investors are changing their position to get ready for a bull run. Let’s look at the specifics.
Record Low Bearish Bets Signal Bitcoin Rise
As Bitcoin (BTC) has been falling, the number of short-term bearish bets have been on the rise. Shorting the cryptocurrency price with these bets is a way to win even when a coin index is falling.
The problem, however, is that those bets haven’t been paying off. BTC has lately refused to close below the $6,000 price point. At the moment of this writing, BTC is ticking slowly upward at $6,712.
As a result, the BTC futures market is showing a record-low number of contracts. Hedge funders and large speculators typically trade futures contracts of bitcoin. But data posted from Commodity Futures Trading Commission on Friday show there was a net position of just -1266 contracts last week. Just over two months ago, there were -1945 net short positions.
The decline in net short positions from -1945 to -1266 is a sign that bearish bets on Bitcoin are less desirable. And that means that BTC’s price fall likely burned itself out and will be easier to go up than fall below $6,000.
Moving Averages Backup Bullish Sentiment
In addition to the steady decline of short bets on BTC, other trends are adding credibility to the feeling that BTC could break $7,000 soon. And those are specifically the 50-candle and 100-candle moving averages. Both are currently creating a rising trend line that’s supporting a more bullish outlook.
Moving averages are among the most important data signals for investors. In the most basic sense, an investor keeps track of moving averages to keep an eye on crossovers. Importantly, crossovers are signals that identify a shift in the momentum of a commodity. In other words, they’re helpful for determining exit and entry strategy.
So for example, a crossover that’s below a moving average might signal a downward trend. Whereas a crossover above might signal an uptrend. Taking a look at the recent BTC price data, there’s a clear signal of an above crossover.
Both 10-day and 5-day moving averages are trending upward. But the most important signal is the slightly longer-term crossover. The 50-day moving average is just today crossing above the 100-day moving average. And that’s a bully-friendly signal, echoed by the declining number of bearish bets on Bitcoin futures.
In the end, the fact that Bitcoin hasn’t crossed $6,800 yet could be a concern. The bearish slide of Bitcoin might not be over quite yet. But unless the price dips below $6,500, expect BTC to make good on these bullish portents.